Study: Coup possible in Morocco, Saudi Arabia too
Hebrew University political scientists find that in countries where citizens' democratic aspirations are unfulfilled, they are more likely to try to undermine government stability
Tomer Velmer
Published: 02.02.11, 08:17 / Israel News
The first signs for the governmental instability in Egypt were detected as early as two years ago, according to a new study conducted by political scientists from Hebrew University.
The study, which will be published soon by the Journal of Conflict Resolution, was conducted by Prof. Tamir Sheafer and Dr. Shaul Shenhav. The researchers measured the "democratic gap" in about 90 democratic and non-democratic countries.
After weeks of opposition protests inspired by regime ouster in Tunisia and turmoil in Egypt, Abdullah names his former ex-military advisor Marouf Bakhit as new prime minister with orders to carry out 'true political reforms'
"The democratic gap is the difference between the democratic aspirations of a country's citizens and the level of democracy given to them by the state's institutions," explains Prof. Sheafer.
According to the study's findings, political stability will be in danger only in the case of a "negative democratic gap". In other words, when the citizens' expectations for democracy are unfulfilled, there is a higher chance that the citizens will take a risk and take to the streets in a bid to undermine the regime's stability.
With a "positive democratic gap", which exists when the state's institutions allow a higher level of democracy than the citizens seek, there is no danger to the government's stability.
The research data were collected in 2008 through public opinion polls and objective international indices, which measured the "democratic gap" in a large number of countries and revealed that the popular uprisings which took place recently in Thailand, Iran and Egypt could have been predicted as early as two years ago.
According to the data, civilian coups are expected soon in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Belarus and even China. In Jordan, Algeria and Malaysia, however, the findings point to a "positive democratic gap" and a coup is unlikely.
"In these countries, although they are not characterized by a high level of democratization, the citizens' democratic aspirations are lower, and in such a situation the danger of governmental instability is smaller," says Dr. Shenhav.
The researchers stress, however, that the model's prediction abilities should be treated with caution, as there are many other factors which play an important role in explaining instability, including the regime's response to the attempts to undermine stability, the economic situation and democratization processes which may be led by the government.
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Kajian: Kemungkin Rampasan kuasa di Maghribi, Arab Saudi juga
Saintis politik Universiti Ibrani mendapati bahawa di negara-negara di mana aspirasi demokrasi warganegara yang tidak dipenuhi, mereka lebih cenderung untuk mencuba untuk merosakkan kestabilan kerajaan
Tomer Velmer
Diterbitkan pada: 02.02.11, 08:17 / Israel News
Tanda-tanda pertama untuk ketidakstabilan kerajaan di Mesir dikesan seawal dua tahun lalu, menurut sebuah kajian baru yang dilakukan oleh saintis politik dari Universiti Ibrani.
Penyelidikan, yang akan segera diterbitkan oleh Jurnal Resolusi Konflik, dilakukan oleh Prof Tamir Sheafer dan Dr Shaul Shenhav. Para penyelidik mengukur "jurang demokratik" di sekitar 90 negara-negara demokratik dan bukan-demokrasi.
Setelah berminggu-minggu protes pembangkang yang diilhami oleh pengusiran rejim di Tunisia dan gejolak di Mesir, Abdullah nama bekas penasihat ex-tentera Marouf Bakhit sebagai perdana menteri baru dengan perintah untuk melaksanakan 'reformasi politik benar'
"Kesenjangan demokrasi adalah perbezaan antara aspirasi demokrasi warga negara dan tahap demokrasi yang diberikan kepada mereka oleh lembaga-lembaga negara," jelas Prof Sheafer.
Berdasarkan penemuan kajian, kestabilan politik akan berada dalam bahaya hanya dalam kes "gap demokratik negatif". Dengan kata lain, ketika harapan warga negara untuk demokrasi yang tidak dipenuhi, ada kemungkinan lebih tinggi bahawa warga akan mengambil risiko dan turun ke jalan dalam usaha untuk melemahkan kestabilan rejim.
Dengan "gap demokratik positif", yang ada ketika lembaga-lembaga negara membolehkan tahap yang lebih tinggi demokrasi daripada warga mencari, tidak ada bahaya terhadap kestabilan kerajaan.
Data kajian dikumpulkan pada 2008 melalui tinjauan pendapat awam dan indeks antarabangsa tujuan, yang diukur "celah demokrasi" di sejumlah besar negara dan mendedahkan bahawa pemberontakan popular yang terjadi baru-baru ini di Thailand, Iran dan Mesir sudah dapat diprediksi sebagai sejak dua tahun lalu.
Menurut data, rampasan kuasa awam dijangka akan di Maghribi, Arab Saudi, Belarus dan bahkan China. Di Jordan, Algeria dan Malaysia, bagaimanapun, penemuan titik ke "gap demokratik positif" dan rampasan kuasa tidak mungkin berlaku.
"Di negara-negara tersebut, meskipun proses demokrasi tidak dijalankan sepenuhnya , aspirasi demokrasi warganegara juga lebih rendah, dan dalam situasi seperti itu,risiko ketidakstabilan kerajaan adalah lebih kecil," kata Dr Shenhav.
Para penyelidik menekankan, bagaimanapun, bahawa kemampuan model ramalan harus dijalankan dengan berhati-hati, kerana ada banyak faktor lain yang memainkan peranan penting dalam menjelaskan ketidakstabilan, termasuk tanggapan rejim terhadap usaha untuk mengganggu kestabilan, situasi ekonomi dan proses demokrasi yang mungkin akan dipimpin oleh kerajaan.
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